As the market eagerly awaits the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its July policy meeting, bond yields remained relatively unchanged on Wednesday morning.
- The yield on the 2-year Treasury fell by less than 1 basis point to 4.953%. Remember, yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury showed minimal change, hovering around 4.258%.
- The yield on the 30-year Treasury remained steady at 4.375%.
The stability in Treasury yields can be attributed to multiple factors. Traders are keeping a close eye on the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes at 2 p.m. Eastern, which are expected to shed light on the central bank's policy decisions.
Additionally, investors have noticed increased pressure on the government bond market due to a surge in corporate bond supply. On Tuesday alone, $36 billion worth of high-grade corporate bonds were sold, with a total of $120 billion of issuance expected in September, according to Bloomberg.
At the same time, ten-year benchmark yields have reached their highest level in two weeks, drawing close to the 16-year highs seen last month. This increase is fueled by rising oil prices, which have sparked concerns about inflation in the market.
Finally, several key economic updates are scheduled for release today. The trade deficit for July will be announced at 8:30 a.m., followed by the final reading of the S&P U.S. services PMI for August at 9:45 a.m. At 10 a.m., the ISM services report for August will also be made public.
Market Pricing Indicates No Change in Interest Rates
The market is predicting a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its upcoming meeting on September 20, as per the CME FedWatch tool.
Possibility of Rate Hike in November Increases
The chances of a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the range up to 5.50% to 5.75%, in the subsequent meeting in November is priced at 43%. This percentage has risen from 26% just a month ago.
Rate Reduction Expected in 2024
Based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures, analysts project that the central bank will not lower its Fed funds rate target until July 2024. This suggests a continuation of the current rate for a considerable period.
Analysts Express Concerns and Predict Volatility
Analysts are sharing their insights regarding these market predictions.
Factors Causing Investor Concern
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, highlights that despite the increasing belief in a soft landing for the economy, investors are becoming more apprehensive about potential challenges. The rising levels of debt, upcoming student loan obligations, and dwindling savings are causing unease among market participants.
Expectation for Market Volatility
Roach further comments on how the markets may react to the data and the Fed's commentary surrounding it. If the economic data weakens significantly and inflation fails to accelerate, Roach anticipates that the Fed will approach the end of its current rate hiking campaign. Therefore, investors should be prepared for increased market volatility as they analyze and interpret the information provided.