U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Expected to Decline, Gasoline and Distillate Fuels Stocks to See Small Builds

According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are likely to fall for a second consecutive week. At the same time, there are expectations of small builds in gasoline and distillate fuels stocks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the oil and products inventory data for the week ended Dec. 29 on Thursday at 11 a.m. EST.

Crude Oil Stockpiles

Analysts and traders have provided an average estimate indicating that commercial crude stockpiles will decrease by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week's inventory of 436.6 million barrels. Out of nine participants in the survey, eight expect a drop in stocks, while one foresees a build. The range of expectations varies from a draw of 6.8 million barrels to a build of 2.4 million barrels.

Gasoline Inventories

The survey indicates that gasoline inventories are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels from the previous week's level of 226.1 million barrels. Estimates range from a build of 3.4 million barrels to a draw of 2 million barrels.

Distillates Stocks

Forecasts suggest that stocks of distillates, mostly diesel fuel, are likely to rise by 400,000 barrels from the current inventory of 115.8 million barrels. Predictions vary from an increase of 3.2 million barrels to a reduction of 2 million barrels.

Refinery Capacity Use

Refinery capacity use is expected to decrease by a fifth of a percentage point to 93.1%. Forecasts differ, with a range from a half percentage-point increase to a 1.5 percentage-point drop. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.

Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use --- | --- | --- | --- Again Capital | -2.9 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 0.3 Confluence Investment Management | -1.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | -1.5 DTN | -2.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | -0.4 Excel Futures | -6.8 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -0.4 Spartan Capital Securities | 2.4 | 0.5 | -1.4 | n/f Mizuho | -3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -0.5 Price Futures Group | -3.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 0.5 Ritterbusch and Associates | -3.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 0.5 Tradition Energy | -4.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | n/f AVERAGE | -2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.2

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.