Drought Impacts Production and Stocks

WINNIPEG, Manitoba - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has revised its production forecasts for several cereal, oilseed, and pulse crops in its August outlook. These adjustments are a result of the ongoing drought in southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.

Canola Production Holds at 18.80 Million Metric Tons

For the 2023-24 crop year, AAFC maintains its call on canola production at 18.80 million metric tons. However, an error has been identified. The report indicates an imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance, reflected in the negative feed, waste, and dockage (FWD) estimate of 663,000 tons.

The report acknowledges that the negative FWD suggests an underestimation of carryin and/or production for the crop year. To rectify this, revised estimates are expected to be provided in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada's supply and disposition report.

Upcoming Reports for More Accurate Crop Output

Statistics Canada (StatCan) is set to issue its model-based production estimates on Aug. 29, followed by its stocks report on Sept. 8. These reports will provide additional insights and assist in providing a more precise representation of crop output for the 2023-24 season.

The September report from AAFC is eagerly anticipated as it is expected to incorporate these new data points, further enhancing the accuracy of crop output projections for the coming year.

Revised Crop Production Estimates for Canada in 2023-24

MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville recently addressed an error in the government's crop production estimates for 2022. While the negative forward (FWD) number cannot be accurate, Jubinville suggests that the government has acknowledged its underestimation of canola production, which is projected to be around 18.1 million metric tons (MMT). Jubinville believes that the actual estimate is underestimated by at least 500,000 to 700,000 tons. He anticipates that Statistics Canada (StatCan) will rectify this error in their upcoming grain stocks report in September or potentially delay it until the December production report.

Additionally, there have been adjustments to the projected production figures for other key crops. Wheat production for 2023-24 has been revised from 35.33 million tons in July to 33.21 million tons. Similarly, durum production has been reduced from 5.70 million tons to 4.91 million tons. Jubinville attributes these reductions to drought conditions affecting southern Alberta, southwest Saskatchewan, and west-central Saskatchewan. While he believes that these numbers are still relatively high, he expects future reports to indicate a downward trend.

Oats production has also been slightly decreased from 2.82 million tons to 2.71 million tons.

On the other hand, the soybean estimate remains unchanged at 6.85 million tons.

Corn production has seen an increase from 14.53 million tons in July to 15.30 million tons. This upward adjustment is attributed to favorable growing conditions in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba, as reported by the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

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